| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 200,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 300,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 400,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 500,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 600,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks whether specified deportation-related outcomes will occur in 2026; it matters because deportation activity is a direct signal of immigration enforcement policy and has political, legal, and humanitarian implications.
Deportation levels and practices are shaped by the current administration's enforcement priorities, budgets for immigration agencies, court rulings, and cooperation from states and localities. Historically, U.S. deportation policy has shifted with administrations and major events (e.g., migration surges, international crises), and those same drivers will influence outcomes in 2026.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated judgments about future events and update as new information arrives; they should be read as evolving signals rather than definitive forecasts.
The contract tracks the specific outcome text and resolution criteria published on the KALSHI market page; outcomes can be framed as thresholds, timing windows, or occurrence/non-occurrence of defined actions, so consult the market's outcome descriptions and rulebook for the precise metric used.
'Closes: TBD' means the platform has not set a formal close date; settlement will follow the contract's rules once closure and the resolution source are announced, so monitor the market page for updates and any posted settlement definitions.
Primary actors are the President and the Department of Homeland Security (including ICE and CBP), the Department of Justice and federal courts (through rulings), and Congress (through legislation and appropriations); state and local governments also influence enforcement via cooperation or sanctuary policies.
Major signals include new enforcement memos or executive actions, high-profile court rulings or injunctions, passage or failure of relevant legislation, agency budget announcements, sudden shifts in migration flows, and public statements from senior officials.
Use it as a timely indicator of market sentiment alongside primary sources: read official DHS/ICE releases, court opinions, congressional actions, and migration data; watch price movements after key announcements and consider legal and operational timelines when interpreting those moves.