| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $575,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $557,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $567,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $570,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $572,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $565,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $560,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $562,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the typical home value will be in the Washington, DC metropolitan area in February 2026; it matters because changes in typical home values affect buyers, sellers, local tax bases, and lending decisions.
The DC metro housing market has historically been shaped by federal employment, limited land supply in inner suburbs, and strong demand for transit-accessible neighborhoods. Recent years have seen cyclical swings driven by interest rates, remote-work migration, and local development patterns, all of which can influence values by Feb 2026.
Market prices are an aggregation of participants’ views about the expected typical home value at the contract’s resolution date and will move as new information arrives; interpret prices as the market consensus under current information, not a fixed prediction.
The contract resolves to the typical home value for February 2026; the platform lists the specific trading close and settlement schedule on the event page (currently shown as TBD), so check the contract on KALSHI for the official close and settlement dates.
The contract uses a specific metric and geographic definition stated on its rules page (for example, a median or other single-value statistic covering a defined metro area); consult the event’s official contract text to see whether it uses a particular data provider and the exact metro boundaries included.
Consider long-term trends like above-average appreciation tied to federal jobs and constrained inner-belt supply, plus shorter cycles driven by interest-rate swings and demand shocks; past recoveries and downturns illustrate sensitivity to borrowing costs and employment changes.
Key movers include announcements on mortgage rates and Fed guidance, local employment reports or large employer relocations/layoffs, major housing supply developments or zoning changes, and national housing indicators or unexpected macro shocks.
Participants include local real estate analysts, institutional macro and housing-focused traders, investors tracking regional fundamentals, and retail traders; publicly available housing data (MLS reports, national indices), local news, and economic releases all feed into participant expectations.