| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year change will be for September 2026. The published figure matters because it influences inflation expectations, monetary policy, and financial markets.
CPI is the BLS measure of price changes for a basket of consumer goods and services; year-over-year readings compare the current month to the same month a year earlier. Recent economic history has seen volatility from supply-chain shifts, energy price swings, and monetary policy adjustments, all of which shape how participants view the September 2026 print.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about the published CPI outcome and move as new data and news arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of market consensus, but confirm the contract's settlement rules before drawing conclusions.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the monthly CPI report; the September CPI is published in October, generally around the middle of the month—check the BLS release calendar for the exact date.
The contract description on the market page specifies which series is used; contracts labeled 'CPI year-over-year' commonly refer to the headline BLS CPI that includes food and energy, but always confirm the settlement definition before trading.
The 16 outcomes are predefined bins or thresholds corresponding to ranges of the year-over-year CPI value; the market page lists the exact ranges and the settlement method tied to the BLS release.
Low or zero reported volume on the event page indicates thin liquidity, meaning prices can move on small trades and may be less informative; when volume is low, check order-book depth and be prepared for wider spreads or abrupt price moves.
Key movers include monthly employment reports, retail sales, producer price indexes, personal consumption expenditures, industrial production, major commodity or oil price changes, and Federal Reserve statements—any of these can shift inflation expectations and market pricing for the September CPI outcome.