| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year for November 2026 will be; it matters because the CPI is a primary gauge of inflation that influences interest rates, wages, and asset prices.
CPI has been a focal point of policy and markets throughout the 2020s as economies adjusted to post‑pandemic demand, supply disruptions, and changing labor conditions. By late 2026, trends in energy, housing, wages, and global supply chains will shape whether inflation is easing, persistent, or reaccelerating.
Odds in this prediction market represent the aggregate expectations of traders at a point in time — they summarize how new data and news are being priced, but they are not guarantees. Use them as a continuously updated market signal alongside your own analysis.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics normally publishes the CPI for a given month in the month following the reference month (typically mid‑month); this market resolves to the official figure specified in the contract at the time of publication. Check the market's Rules/Resolution page for the exact release used and the trading cutoff.
The contract text on the market page defines which BLS series and whether seasonally adjusted or unadjusted data apply. Always consult the event's official rules to see which published BLS series will be used for resolution.
Prior months set the base for year‑over‑year comparisons and inform trend expectations; market participants update prices as new monthly data and revisions arrive. Most prediction markets resolve to the initially published November figure, so later BLS revisions usually do not change the official outcome unless the contract explicitly states otherwise.
Key movers include the October CPI (and other monthly CPI components), producer price data, employment reports, retail sales, oil and commodity price moves, major Fed communications, and sudden supply or geopolitical shocks that affect prices.
Resolution typically uses the first published BLS number shown in the contract's resolution source. Subsequent BLS revisions normally do not change the resolved outcome unless the market rules explicitly state that a 'revised' figure will be used—review the event's resolution language to confirm.