| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which year‑over‑year value the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will register for May 2026; the CPI print is a widely watched inflation gauge that affects monetary policy, financial markets, and cost‑of‑living adjustments.
The CPI year‑over‑year compares prices in May 2026 with the same month a year earlier, so the print reflects both recent monthly price changes and base effects from May 2025. Relevant background includes the inflation trajectory through 2024–2026, trends in shelter and energy costs, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance over that period.
Prediction market odds aggregate trader expectations about where the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI year‑over‑year figure for May 2026 will land; shifts in odds incorporate new macro data, commodity moves, and news shocks and represent the market’s consensus at any given time.
The market closes at the time specified on the platform (currently listed as TBD); final settlement is based on the official CPI year‑over‑year number for May 2026 published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its monthly CPI release.
They are mutually exclusive outcome bins that cover a range of possible headline CPI year‑over‑year values for May 2026; the outcome corresponding to the bin that contains the official BLS figure will settle as the winner.
Look at the inflation path over the prior 12–24 months, major component trends (shelter, energy, used cars, services), and any significant policy or supply shocks since May 2025 — these contextual factors determine base effects and momentum.
Relevant indicators include monthly CPI and core CPI prints for April and early May, PCE inflation, PPI, retail sales, employment and wage reports, and commodity price developments (especially energy and food) that can move expectations ahead of the BLS release.
Sudden events (geopolitical shocks, extreme weather, large commodity moves) can shift inflation expectations and monthly readings, and official revisions to BLS data can change the historical series; settlement follows the official BLS published May 2026 figure used by the market’s rules.