| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year change will be for March 2026, a widely watched gauge of inflation. The result matters because it influences financial markets, monetary policy expectations, and cost‑of‑living assessments.
CPI year‑over‑year compares the price level in March 2026 to March 2025 and is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Recent years have seen episodes of volatile energy and shelter components that drove headline moves; underlying trends and policy responses continue to shape inflation dynamics heading into 2026. Market participants trade outcomes based on incoming data releases, macro news, and evolving monetary and fiscal conditions.
Market prices for outcomes express the collective expectation of traders about the reported CPI reading and move as new information arrives. Use prices as a real‑time indicator of consensus, not a guaranteed forecast.
The BLS typically publishes the prior month’s CPI in mid‑month (the March reading is normally released in mid‑April); check the BLS release calendar for the exact date and time. This market will generally settle based on that official BLS release—see the market page for the precise settlement rules and closing time.
The 16 outcomes correspond to a set of mutually exclusive CPI year‑over‑year ranges or discrete result bins covering possible reported values for March 2026. Consult the market description on the platform for the exact breakpoints and wording of each outcome.
Key subcomponents to monitor include shelter (rents and owner‑equivalent rent), energy (fuel and utility prices), core services excluding housing, and goods prices. Movements in these components in monthly reports and high‑frequency indicators often foreshadow the annual figure.
Interim data—such as weekly energy price updates, employment and wage reports, producer prices, and retail sales—can shift expectations and thus market prices. Traders update positions as new information changes the perceived likelihood of different CPI outcomes.
Fed policy influences inflation with lags: interest‑rate moves affect demand, credit conditions, and expectations over time. Participants consider recent Fed communications, rate decisions, and forward guidance because these shape economic activity and inflationary pressures that feed into the March CPI reading.