| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi event asks which headline CPI year‑over‑year reading will be published for June 2026 — a key macro indicator that influences interest‑rate expectations, bond yields, and broad market sentiment.
The Consumer Price Index tracks changes in prices paid by urban consumers and is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In recent years inflation dynamics have reflected interactions among labor market strength, housing costs, energy and global supply conditions; the June 2026 reading will be assessed in that evolving context.
Market prices aggregate participants' views on which discrete CPI bracket will be reported; they move as new data and risk events update those expectations and should be read as a real‑time consensus signal rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The BLS publishes the monthly CPI report according to its official release calendar, typically in mid‑July for June data. This market settles to the BLS figure specified in the event contract, so consult the contract text for the exact source and settlement rules.
The event contract defines which series is used (for example, headline versus core and whether seasonally adjusted values apply). Always check the event's contract language to confirm the exact BLS series and rounding/settlement conventions.
Interim releases update participant expectations about momentum and persistence in inflation. Stronger‑than‑expected data tends to push market prices toward higher CPI outcomes, while weaker data shifts them toward lower outcomes.
Settlement normally follows the publication rule spelled out in the contract. Most contracts use the official BLS published value for the June 2026 release as the determinative number; later revisions typically do not alter an already settled event, but check the contract for any exceptions.
Participants include macro traders, economists, institutional hedgers, and retail speculators. They trade to express inflation views, hedge exposure to rates or inflation‑sensitive assets, or to react to news and policy expectations that affect the likely June CPI outcome.