| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year value will be reported for July 2026. It matters because the July CPI print is a key gauge of inflation that influences financial markets and policymaker decisions.
CPI measures the change in prices paid by urban consumers as compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; year‑over‑year compares July 2026 to July 2025. The contract offers 16 mutually exclusive outcome ranges so traders can express views on where the published headline CPI will fall given developments in energy, rents, wages, and policy over the prior 12 months.
Market prices reflect the collective, real‑time expectations of participants about which outcome range the official July 2026 BLS headline CPI will fall into. Treat quoted prices as a market consensus that updates with new data and news, not a guarantee of the eventual print.
The contract resolves to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI report for July 2026 as published in the BLS release. The exchange uses that official publication for settlement timing and you should consult the contract rules on Kalshi for the exact resolution timestamp and any cutoff rules.
This contract is based on the headline (all‑items) CPI year‑over‑year figure as published in the BLS release. For details on whether the exchange uses seasonally adjusted or unadjusted numbers for resolution, check the contract specifications on the platform.
The market divides the plausible range of headline year‑over‑year CPI into 16 non‑overlapping intervals (buckets), with each outcome representing one interval. The contract page on Kalshi lists the precise numeric boundaries for each outcome bucket.
Key movers include monthly CPI releases for the months leading up to July, producer price data, employment and wage reports, retail sales, Federal Reserve policy statements and minutes, large swings in oil and commodity prices, and unforeseen supply or geopolitical shocks.
Sharp price moves reflect updated market consensus from new data, news, or liquidity and signal that traders are changing expectations for the July print. They indicate shifting probabilities among outcome buckets but do not guarantee the final reported number.