| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 5% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $97K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 32% | 34¢ | 37¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 45% | 46¢ | 48¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 4% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.0% | 5% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $543 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $368 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 5% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $102 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $52 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $52 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $52 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $52 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which discrete year‑over‑year CPI bucket will be reported for February 2026; it matters because the headline CPI print is a key macro data point that influences market expectations for inflation and policy.
Headline CPI measures the change in consumer prices compared with the same month a year earlier; the February 2026 year‑over‑year figure compares prices in Feb 2026 to Feb 2025 and will be published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders and policymakers monitor the print for signs of persistent inflation, while markets price in likely values in advance via outcomes on this market.
Each market outcome represents a mutually exclusive range for the published year‑over‑year CPI for February 2026; market prices reflect collective expectations about which range will be realized and will move as new information arrives.
The BLS typically publishes monthly CPI data in the month following the measurement month; this market will respond sharply when the official BLS February 2026 year‑over‑year figure is released, since settlement is based on that published number and traders adjust positions immediately around the release.
The 16 outcomes partition possible year‑over‑year CPI values for Feb 2026 into exclusive ranges (bins); the outcome corresponding to the bin that contains the BLS‑published headline year‑over‑year CPI for February 2026 will be the settling outcome, per the market's settlement rules.
Settlement will be based on the headline year‑over‑year CPI figure as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for February 2026, following Kalshi's stated adjudication procedures and any verification window described in the market rules.
Key developments include changes in crude and retail fuel prices, notable shifts in food commodity prices, major weather events affecting supply chains or agricultural output, new labor market reports that alter wage expectations, and any significant fiscal or monetary announcements that affect demand.
Expect elevated volatility and rapid repricing at the moment of the BLS release; settlement will follow the market's published rules after the BLS figure is official and any verification period ends, so account for potential short‑term liquidity swings and ensure you understand the platform's settlement window.