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Economics OPEN

CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?

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All Outcomes (16)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
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Exactly 2.8% 0%
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Exactly 3.1% 0%
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Exactly 3.3% 0%
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Exactly 3.4% 0%
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Exactly 3.5% 0%
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About This Market

This market asks which year-over-year change the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will report for August 2026 and matters because that published inflation reading will influence monetary policy expectations, markets, and real purchasing power.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issues monthly CPI figures that compare price levels to the same month a year earlier; those readings are a primary gauge of inflation. Recent years have seen elevated and sometimes volatile inflation driven by energy costs, supply disruptions, and labor market dynamics, so the August 2026 print will be watched for signs of persistence or disinflation.

Prices in this prediction market reflect traders' collective view of which numeric band the published BLS CPI year-over-year value will fall into; they move as new data and forecasts change expectations.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

When will the official CPI year-over-year for August 2026 be published, and which published number will this market use to settle?

The BLS generally publishes the CPI for a given month in the middle of the following month; this market will settle to the official BLS-published year-over-year CPI figure for August 2026—check the market’s settlement terms for the exact publication and time used.

Which CPI series determines the winning outcome for this event (headline CPI, core CPI, CPI-U, etc.)?

The market’s settlement terms specify the exact series; many markets use the BLS CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) headline year-over-year figure, but you should confirm the event page to see whether 'headline' or a different series is used.

How do BLS revisions to CPI after first publication affect which outcome wins for August 2026?

Most prediction markets settle to the first BLS-published CPI number for the month; if the event uses a different rule (for example, a revised series or a later publication), that will be stated in the market’s rules—subsequent revisions typically do not reopen settled markets.

How should I interpret an individual outcome among the 16 choices in this market?

Each outcome represents a specific numeric range (a bin) of year-over-year CPI change; the single bin that contains the BLS-published August 2026 y/y value is the winning outcome—consult the event page to see the exact boundaries of each bin.

Which incoming data releases and indicators between now and the August CPI are most relevant for forecasting this reading?

Useful indicators include monthly energy price movements and futures, producer prices, import/export price indices, retail sales, employment and wage reports, regional CPI or price surveys, and shelter/rent indices; watch oil markets and shelter trends closely since they often have outsized effects on the near-term CPI print.

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