| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year change will be for April 2026. Outcomes inform traders about expected inflation momentum, which impacts interest-rate expectations, financial markets, and policy discussions.
CPI year‑over‑year compares the price level in April 2026 to April 2025 as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Recent years have featured swings in energy, shelter, and supply‑chain factors that influenced headline inflation; participants will be weighing those dynamics plus recent labor market and policy signals when forming views for April 2026. The market provides a way to aggregate diverse information and real‑time reactions to new data between now and the BLS release.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations about the BLS‑reported CPI outcome and reflect how consensus shifts as new information arrives. Read prices as the market’s collective view of which outcome range the April 2026 CPI reading will fall into, and consult the contract rules for settlement mapping and timing.
Settlement is based on the CPI series and methodology specified in the market’s rules, typically the BLS headline CPI (All Urban Consumers) year‑over‑year change comparing April 2026 to April 2025; consult the contract terms on the market page to confirm the exact series, seasonal adjustment, and rounding rules used for settlement.
The official close and settlement timing are stated on the market page (this event currently lists 'Closes: TBD'). Settlement typically follows publication of the BLS CPI release and any verification window described in the contract terms, so check the market’s timeline for the exact cutoffs and settlement time.
Each outcome corresponds to a defined CPI range or exact value bracket as set out in the contract specifications; when the BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI, the reported figure is matched to the bracket for the winning outcome per the market’s settlement rules.
Monthly CPI and core CPI releases, Producer Price Index (PPI), employment reports (including payrolls and wage measures), Federal Reserve statements and minutes, major fiscal announcements, and large commodity or geopolitical shocks are the primary information events that can materially change expectations for April 2026 CPI.
Active participants include macro traders, institutional investors and hedge funds, professional economists and analysts, and informed retail traders; news‑driven flows and liquidity from large participants can move market prices quickly as new data or analysis is released.