| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) month‑over‑month change will be for September 2026; it matters because the monthly CPI headline is a key short‑term gauge of inflation and influences financial markets and policy expectations.
CPI measures the change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services; month‑over‑month readings are released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and are closely watched for trends in energy, food, and shelter costs. In the years following the global disruptions of the early 2020s, markets have remained sensitive to supply shocks, commodity swings, labor market tightness, and central bank policy shifts, all of which can influence monthly CPI prints.
Odds in this market represent how participants collectively price the likelihood of each discrete reported outcome for September 2026 CPI MoM; treat them as a real‑time summary of trader expectations, not an official forecast from statistical agencies.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes the CPI for the prior month in mid‑October; this market will settle based on the official BLS headline month‑over‑month figure published in that release, so traders often update positions in the days leading up to and immediately after the BLS release.
The market resolves to the headline U.S. CPI month‑over‑month figure as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for September 2026 (the published, seasonally adjusted headline figure); the market's outcome labels map to ranges or exact values as specified on the Kalshi event page and the official BLS print is the authoritative source for resolution.
Late‑month events can cause sharp short‑term price swings in affected categories (e.g., gasoline, fresh food, hotel rates) and those swings will be reflected in the BLS data if they materially affect prices during the CPI reference period; the magnitude and timing of local price impacts determine whether they move the national monthly headline enough to change the market outcome.
Markets typically settle based on the BLS figure published in the official release used for resolution; subsequent routine revisions by the BLS after that publication generally do not retroactively change the settled outcome unless Kalshi's event rules explicitly allow for a different resolution dataset—check the event terms on the platform.
The event page lists the market close time; if the close is listed as TBD, final trading deadlines will be posted on the Kalshi event page before settlement—monitor the Kalshi page or platform notifications for the confirmed close time and any updates.