| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) month‑over‑month change will be for November 2026; the outcome matters because the CPI read influences financial markets, cost‑of‑living adjustments, and central bank decisions.
The CPI is compiled and published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and tracks price changes for a representative basket of goods and services. Month‑over‑month readings show short‑term inflation momentum and are particularly sensitive to volatile components such as energy and food; observers compare them against recent trends and Federal Reserve guidance when forming views about late‑2026 policy.
Prediction market prices aggregate participants' real‑time expectations about what the official BLS month‑over‑month CPI print will be; they are informative as a summary of market sentiment but do not guarantee the official outcome, which determines settlement.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes the CPI for a given month in the middle of the following month; the market will settle based on the official BLS release specified in the contract. Check the KALSHI contract page for the platform’s exact settlement rules and timing, as the market may close before the BLS release.
A contract labeled 'CPI month‑over‑month' commonly refers to the headline (all items) CPI month‑to‑month change, typically seasonally adjusted, but the exact series and adjustment should be confirmed in the KALSHI contract description and official tie‑breaking rules.
Market‑moving items include weekly gasoline and energy reports, major weather events or supply disruptions, key labor‑market releases (wage and employment data), large retail sales or shipping disruptions, and any unexpected Fed statements that shift inflation expectations.
Seasonal adjustment removes predictable calendar effects (holidays, seasonal consumption) from the month‑to‑month series, so the seasonally adjusted CPI tends to show underlying momentum more clearly; confirm whether the contract uses the seasonally adjusted series in the market rules.
Use recent month‑to‑month history to gauge typical volatility and momentum while accounting for structural changes (for example, shifts in shelter inflation or energy volatility). Historical moves inform risk and scenario analysis, but be cautious extrapolating past patterns when major supply shocks, policy changes, or seasonally atypical events are possible.