| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will change month‑over‑month in May 2026; monthly CPI readings are closely watched because they influence interest‑rate expectations, bond yields, and real incomes. Market prices reflect traders' expectations about the upcoming BLS release and can move sharply around the publication.
The CPI is produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and reports changes in the price of a broad basket of goods and services; headline CPI includes volatile food and energy components while core CPI excludes them. After a period of elevated and then variable inflation in recent years, each monthly print is interpreted for signs of persistent inflation or renewed disinflation and compared with other indicators such as producer prices, retail spending, and labor data.
On this platform, odds represent the market consensus about which outcome range the May 2026 month‑over‑month CPI will fall into — they are not official forecasts but a tradable aggregation of participants' expectations. Because prices update in real time, use them as a snapshot of market sentiment rather than a fixed probability.
The BLS typically publishes the monthly CPI report about two weeks after the reference month ends; this market generally becomes most active and volatile in the hours surrounding the official release, so traders should check the event page for the market's close time relative to the release.
The nine outcomes partition the range of possible month‑over‑month CPI changes into discrete, mutually exclusive bands; consult the event's outcome list on the market page for the exact numeric ranges and settlement rules used to determine which band wins.
Confirm the event specification on the KALSHI market page; many month‑over‑month CPI markets use headline CPI from the BLS, but some markets explicitly use core CPI, so checking the event description is essential before trading.
Look at recent producer price (PPI) trends, retail sales and consumer spending data for May, employment and average hourly earnings, commodity prices (oil, agricultural), and any major weather or supply disruptions — these can update expectations ahead of the BLS release.
A materially hotter‑than‑expected reading could strengthen market expectations for tighter monetary policy or delayed easing, while a softer reading could increase expectations of easier policy — however, policymakers often focus on multi‑month trends and their preferred inflation measures, so one monthly print is rarely decisive on its own.