| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the U.S. Consumer Price Index will change on a month‑over‑month basis in June 2026 and matters because the monthly CPI reading is a key short‑term signal of inflation momentum that influences markets and policy expectations.
The CPI is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the month‑over‑month figure isolates near‑term price movement across consumer goods and services. Monthly readings can be volatile and are driven by components such as energy, food, and shelter; traders and policymakers watch them to gauge whether inflation is accelerating, decelerating, or remaining stable in the near term.
Prediction market prices reflect the aggregated expectations of participants about the official June 2026 monthly CPI release and update as new information arrives; treat prices as a consensus signal rather than a guaranteed outcome. Consult the exchange’s posted settlement rules to see which published BLS number the contract will use.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes the prior month's CPI in a mid‑month release; this market will settle based on the official published figure and according to the exchange’s settlement rules, so check the event page and settlement specifications for exact timing and which published value is used.
Each outcome maps to a discrete range or bucket of the reported month‑over‑month change as defined by the contract terms; the event page lists the exact boundaries for those nine outcome ranges, so consult that specification to see how a reported CPI value maps to an outcome.
Some contracts settle on the first published BLS figure, while others specify handling of revisions—review the exchange’s settlement policy for this event to see whether later revisions would change settlement or if only the initial release will be used.
Incoming data that inform near‑term inflation expectations can move the market, including retail sales, producer price index readings, employment reports and wages, weekly jobless claims, housing-related data, and major energy inventory releases; significant macro news or geopolitical events that alter commodity prices can also have an outsized impact.
Federal Reserve speeches and policy communications shape market expectations about the inflation outlook and interest‑rate path, which can influence participant positioning ahead of the CPI print; however, the CPI release itself remains a primary piece of data that can cause immediate repricing if it diverges from prevailing expectations.