| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which month-over-month consumer price index (CPI) change will be reported for July 2026; it matters because the CPI release influences interest-rate expectations, financial markets, and inflation outlooks. Traders use the market to express and aggregate views about near-term inflation surprises relative to consensus forecasts.
Background context: CPI month-over-month readings are closely watched by policymakers and markets as a timely indicator of inflation momentum; recent years have shown episodes of both elevated and declining monthly inflation driven by energy, supply-chain dynamics, and labor costs. The July 2026 reading will be interpreted against the path of core inflation, monetary policy stances, fiscal developments, and any short-term shocks (weather, geopolitical events) that affected prices in July.
Prediction market prices reflect the crowd’s view of which outcome is most likely for the reported July m/m CPI and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but provide a market-implied assessment of expectations and uncertainty around the release.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically posts the CPI for a given month in the middle of the following month; check the BLS release calendar and this platform’s event page for the exact BLS release time and the market’s official settlement rules and cutoff.
The nine outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive ranges for the reported month-over-month CPI change; consult the market description on the event page to see the exact numeric brackets used for each outcome.
Watch prior-month CPI and core CPI, producer price index (PPI), retail sales, employment and wage reports, import/export price indices, high-frequency spending data, and commodity updates (notably oil), as well as any weather or supply disruptions that could have affected July prices.
Sharp moves close to release often reflect new information (e.g., a surprise upstream data point, breaking news about supply disruptions, or large bets by informed traders) but can also result from low liquidity or order imbalances; treat last-minute moves as signals to investigate the information flow rather than definitive proof of the eventual print.
This market settles on the originally published July month-over-month CPI figure per the platform’s settlement rules; subsequent revisions to earlier months do not change the settled outcome for the July release unless the platform specifies a different revision policy.