| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0.2% | 41% | 41¢ | 42¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 10% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 41% | 38¢ | 41¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.2% | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $740 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $613 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $235 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 5% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $164 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $54 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which headline consumer price index (CPI) month-over-month reading will be reported for February 2026; the result matters because the monthly CPI is a high-frequency gauge of inflation that influences financial markets and policy expectations.
CPI measures changes in the prices consumers pay for a broad basket of goods and services; the month-over-month number shows short-run momentum in inflation. Markets and policymakers closely watch each monthly release because volatile components (energy, food, shelter) and recent labor-market developments can cause sharp month-to-month swings.
Market prices and odds aggregate participants' views about which discrete outcome will match the official BLS release for February 2026; they move as new data and news arrive and should be interpreted as a real-time signal of consensus expectations, not as a substitute for the official report.
The BLS issues the official CPI for a given month in the following month (typically in mid‑March for a February reading); this market settles on the headline CPI month-over-month figure as published in the official release specified in the market’s settlement rules—check the contract terms for the exact source and settlement procedure.
Each outcome represents a defined range or exact value as specified in the market contract; the outcome whose range contains the official BLS‑reported month‑over‑month percent change for February 2026 will be declared the winning outcome—review the outcome definitions on the market page for precise boundaries.
Short-run monthly volatility typically comes from energy (notably gasoline), food at home, and some transportation and used‑vehicle prices, while shelter costs often exert a steady, larger influence; shifts in any of these during the February reference period can materially affect the headline MoM number.
Yes—intervening data (weekly fuel-price surveys, producer prices, labor and wage reports, regional price indicators) and major news events can alter traders’ expectations for the February CPI MoM and therefore move market prices up until the market closes and the official release is used for settlement.
Treat this market as a focused, real‑time measure of expectations for the February month‑over‑month reading; use it alongside professional forecasts, multi‑month inflation gauges, and policy communications to form a broader view of inflation momentum and potential implications for monetary policy.