| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which month-over-month change the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will register for August 2026; movements in CPI affect inflation expectations, interest-rate forecasts, and financial markets. Market pricing aggregates traders' expectations about the upcoming official BLS release and can be used as a real-time gauge of market sentiment.
CPI is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' headline measure of consumer inflation and is released monthly for the prior month. In 2026, inflation dynamics remain driven by interactions among energy and food prices, shelter and rent trends, labor market conditions, and central bank policy decisions. Short-term CPI readings are often volatile and sensitive to one-off supply shocks, seasonal factors, and measurement nuances.
Odds in this market reflect the collective assessment of traders about which predefined bucket the August 2026 month-over-month CPI reading will fall into; they are an expression of market expectations, not a guarantee of the official outcome. Always review the market's settlement rules and the BLS release for the authoritative figure that determines settlement.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the official monthly CPI for August 2026 in the month following August (typically mid-month); this market normally settles based on the BLS's official headline CPI month-over-month number and on the timing specified in the contract's settlement rules, so check the market page for exact settlement timing.
The nine outcomes are mutually exclusive buckets that partition possible month-over-month CPI changes for August 2026; each outcome corresponds to a specific range defined by the market listing, so consult the market’s outcome descriptions for the exact numeric boundaries and the settlement condition.
Historical August prints can provide context on seasonality and past volatility, but structural changes (e.g., in housing, energy markets, or BLS methodology) mean past patterns are an imperfect guide; combine historical context with up-to-date data releases and recent trends to form a view.
Key influencers include monthly jobs and unemployment reports, retail sales, producer prices, commodity and energy price moves, major supply disruptions or weather events, and significant fiscal or regulatory announcements that affect consumer demand or supply in August.
Most contracts settle on the initial official BLS publication the market specifies; subsequent BLS revisions typically do not reopen settled markets, though methodology changes or extraordinary announcements by the BLS may be handled according to the exchange’s dispute and settlement policies—review the market rules for specifics.