| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which month-over-month change the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will register for April 2026; the CPI m/m reading is a high-frequency indicator of inflation momentum that can move markets and influence short-term policy expectations.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the headline CPI each month, and the month-over-month change is closely watched for signs of accelerating or decelerating inflation compared with recent months. Traders and policymakers monitor CPI m/m for near-term signals about price pressure coming from energy, food, shelter, and services, as well as the potential need to adjust monetary policy stance.
Prediction market prices express the collective market view about which discrete outcome will match the official BLS release and update as new data, news, and positioning arrive; they are real-time indicators of expectations, not guarantees of the actual printed number.
The BLS typically publishes the CPI for April in the monthly report released in mid-May; this Kalshi market will resolve to the official headline CPI month-over-month figure (seasonally adjusted) as published in the BLS April 2026 CPI release, subject to the platform’s published resolution rules.
The market uses nine mutually exclusive outcome bins that cover different ranges of month-over-month change; the single outcome whose defined range contains the BLS’s published April 2026 headline CPI m/m value is the winning outcome, per the event’s resolution criteria.
Watch weekly gasoline price data, retail sales and restaurant spending, housing starts and rental indicators, producer prices and import/export price indexes, and any high-frequency private CPI nowcasts or regional price surveys, as these can signal direction and magnitude of month-to-month CPI moves.
This market resolves to the BLS’s published April 2026 headline CPI m/m figure as defined by the event rules; if the BLS issues a post-publication correction, resolution will follow the platform’s published policy on errata and revisions, so check the market terms for specifics.
Participants include macro traders, hedge funds, economists, volatility traders, and retail speculators; information that moves the market includes energy and food price reports, private nowcasts, regional CPI proxies, Fed communications, and breaking supply-side news such as weather events or labor actions.