| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which official Consumer Price Index (CPI) outcome will be reported for October; the October CPI matters because it helps shape inflation expectations and influences monetary policy and financial markets.
The CPI is a monthly measure of changes in prices paid by urban consumers, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). October's reading is one monthly point in the inflation time series that policymakers and investors use to assess trends; seasonal effects, energy and food price swings, and shelter costs commonly drive variation in October readings.
Prices (odds) in this prediction market represent the collective view of traders about which discrete October CPI outcome will match the official release; treat those prices as a continuously updating consensus signal, not a certainty.
The BLS typically publishes the monthly CPI for the prior month in the second week of the following month; this Kalshi market will settle based on the official BLS October release per the contract’s settlement rules, so check the market page for the exact release and settlement timestamps.
Each of the seven outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive category or numerical range tied to the official October CPI figure as defined on the contract page; after the BLS posts the October number, only the outcome that matches that published figure will settle as the winner.
Monitor upstream indicators such as the Producer Price Index, retail sales, import/export price indexes, weekly energy inventory and oil futures, and recent employment and wage data—these influence price pressures that feed into October CPI.
Settlement is based on the official BLS publication referenced by the contract at the time of settlement; later revisions typically do not reopen or change the settled outcome, but you should review the contract’s specific settlement and revision policy on the market page.
Unanticipated energy price shocks, significant weather events disrupting supply chains, surprise macro releases (e.g., payrolls or retail sales), and major central bank communications can all shift trader expectations and lead to quick price changes in the days before the BLS release.