| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will be reported and which outcome will be realized; CPI is a primary monthly gauge of inflation that influences financial markets and policy decisions. Understanding likely CPI outcomes matters for traders, investors, and anyone tracking inflation trends.
The CPI is compiled and published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and reports changes in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. November data arrives after a month of retail activity and seasonal shifts, and this KALSHI market currently lists seven discrete outcomes and shows ongoing trading volume; the market close is listed as TBD. November CPI is often watched for late-year momentum in inflation and for how recent supply, energy, and labor developments have fed into prices.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which CPI outcome is most likely and update as new information arrives; higher prices indicate greater market support for a given outcome but are not official forecasts. Because prices change up to market close, use them as a real-time signal of consensus rather than a deterministic prediction.
Resolution follows the official Bureau of Labor Statistics release for the November CPI specified by the contract. Check the event's contract text on KALSHI for the exact release used; many CPI markets settle on the headline BLS number published on the CPI release date.
The contract's settlement rules determine whether the market uses seasonally adjusted data and whether it refers to headline (all items) or core (excluding food and energy) CPI. Always review the event description on KALSHI to confirm which series and adjustments the market will use.
Most prediction markets settle on the number published in the BLS release specified by the contract on the official release date; later revisions are typically not used unless the contract explicitly states otherwise. Confirm the revision policy on the event page.
Key movers include incoming energy and commodity price reports, monthly employment-related releases, producer price data, major retail sales or supply-chain developments, and prominent central bank communications. Any new data or shocks that materially change inflation expectations can shift the market.
Surprises relative to market expectations can move bond yields, equity sentiment, and short-term interest-rate expectations because they alter imputed inflation risk and monetary policy outlooks; the magnitude of market reaction depends on the surprise size and the broader macro context.