| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders express views on the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) reading for May and its economic implications. The outcome influences expectations for inflation trends, monetary policy, and short-term market positioning.
CPI measures how the prices consumers pay for a basket of goods and services change over time and is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). May is one data point in an ongoing inflation series that markets, policymakers, and economists use to assess whether inflation is accelerating or decelerating. Historical patterns and recent monthly swings help shape how traders and analysts interpret a new May release.
Prediction-market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants about the official CPI outcome specified by the market rules; they update as new information arrives. Interpret odds as a real-time signal of market sentiment, not a guaranteed outcome.
Settlement will follow the official government CPI publication referenced in the market rules (typically the BLS release for May). The market will settle after that official number is published; check the event details for any specific settlement timing or requirements.
The precise series and measurement (headline vs. core, month-over-month vs. year-over-year) are defined in the event's specification; consult the contract description. Most CPI contracts reference the BLS CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and will specify whether they use headline or core and which comparison period.
Traders typically watch weekly fuel price reports, food-price indicators, housing and rent surveys, manufacturing and services PMIs, and labor-market releases for developments that can shift inflation expectations ahead of the BLS report.
Compare the May reading to the trend over recent months and to market and central-bank expectations: a number above trend may suggest persistent inflationary pressure, while a below-trend print may indicate cooling. Consider both the headline and core components and which subcategories moved most.
Participants include speculators, macro traders, economists, and hedgers such as funds and corporates. They rely on official BLS releases, private data feeds, commodity price movements, economic calendars, and real-time news about supply shocks or policy changes.