| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which Consumer Price Index (CPI) outcome will be reported for March 2026; it matters because the CPI is a key monthly gauge of inflation that influences monetary policy, asset prices, and economic expectations.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the CPI every month; markets and policymakers closely watch month-to-month changes to assess inflation momentum. Coming into 2026, inflation dynamics reflect interactions among energy and food costs, housing (shelter) inflation, labor market conditions, and lingering supply-chain effects — all of which feed into the March print.
Prices in this prediction market reflect the collective, tradable expectations of participants and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time summary of market sentiment rather than a definitive forecast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes monthly CPI near the middle of the following month (for March releases, that is usually mid-April); this market will resolve according to the specific release and timing listed on the market page and the contract's resolution rules, so check the Kalshi event page and the BLS release calendar for the exact timestamp.
The seven outcomes correspond to the mutually exclusive ranges or categories defined on the market page; the outcome marked 'true' will be the one whose range contains the official BLS CPI figure on the specified release, subject to the market's stated resolution rules.
Whether a revision affects resolution depends on the contract's terms: some markets use the initial BLS release for settlement, others allow later official revisions to govern resolution. Always consult the Kalshi resolution policy printed on the event page to see which data point is authoritative for this market.
Watch monthly reports such as payrolls, unemployment claims, retail sales, producer prices (PPI), import/export price indexes, weekly energy price updates, and any central bank speeches or statements — these releases and news items typically shift traders' expectations ahead of the CPI print.
Participants include speculators, macro traders, economists, and institutional hedgers. Their buy and sell activity aggregates diverse information and views; large or concentrated flows can move the market price, signaling changing consensus expectations or new information being priced in.