| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July will be reported and why markets expect it to matter for interest-rate expectations, financial markets, and cost-of-living assessments.
CPI is a monthly measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that tracks changes in consumer prices across categories such as shelter, energy, and food. The July release is a mid-year data point that market participants use to update inflation outlooks and reassess central bank policy paths and investment positioning.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about which of the event’s mutually exclusive outcomes is most likely; prices move as new information arrives but do not substitute for official statistics from the BLS.
The market will settle based on the official Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release for July; the platform’s listing currently shows the market close as TBD, and Kalshi resolves according to the BLS published figure and its stated settlement rules.
The seven outcomes are seven mutually exclusive CPI categories or ranges defined for July on the market page; each outcome corresponds to a specific reported range or label—consult the market description for exact outcome text.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official CPI press release for July (the CPI-U series used by the platform) is the authoritative source Kalshi uses to determine the market result.
New data on energy, retail, employment, or producer prices, major geopolitical or supply shocks, and significant central bank communications can all alter traders’ expectations and thus market prices ahead of the July CPI release.
A mix of participants—including macro traders, economists, hedge funds, informed retail traders, and hedgers—react to data releases, forecasts, and news; large trades or new analyst research can shift market prices quickly.