| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which CPI outcome will be reported for August and matters because the August CPI is a key monthly gauge of inflation that influences markets, consumers, and policymakers.
The Consumer Price Index measures changes in prices paid by consumers and is published by the official statistical agency specified in the event description. August readings often reflect summer energy and food patterns, rent and shelter trends, and any short-term supply shocks that occurred over the summer. Traders and economists watch the August print for signals about near-term inflation momentum and for clues to central bank policy direction.
Market prices on this event aggregate traders' expectations about the August CPI outcome and update as new data or news arrive; treat them as a real-time consensus indicator rather than a definitive forecast.
The official August CPI is released according to the schedule of the statistical agency named in the event description (for U.S. data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics typically releases the prior month's CPI in mid-September). This Kalshi market's close time is listed as TBD, but markets like this commonly close shortly before the official release—check the event page for the final close time.
The market will settle to the official CPI figure stated in the event's settlement rules; for U.S. CPI events that is usually the Bureau of Labor Statistics report for the relevant month. Always confirm the precise source and specific series (headline, core, seasonally adjusted, etc.) in the event description.
The seven outcomes correspond to the distinct outcome ranges or categories defined on the event page (for example, different CPI reading bands or exact-point buckets). Review the event's outcome definitions to see which specific August CPI values or ranges each outcome covers.
Settlement depends on the rules the event specifies—some markets settle to the initially published figure, others to a final revised figure if the event rules state so. If revisions matter, the event page or official rules will spell out which publication and which version (initial or revised) is used for settlement.
Short-term drivers that can shift market expectations include notable changes in gasoline futures or spot fuel prices, large regional weather events affecting food production, new housing/rent reports or rental listings data, major currency swings that alter import prices, and any central bank commentary or surprise economic releases that change inflation outlooks.