| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders take positions on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) outcome for April; the CPI is a primary gauge of inflation that influences financial markets and monetary policy. Market prices summarize participants' collective expectations about the April inflation print.
CPI measures changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services and is closely watched by policymakers, investors, and businesses. Analysts commonly separate headline CPI (which includes volatile food and energy) from core CPI (which excludes them) to gauge underlying inflation trends; April's reading is interpreted in the context of prior months, labor market conditions, and recent commodity price moves.
Prediction market prices reflect the market consensus about which CPI outcome is most likely given current information and will change as new data or news arrives. Treat prices as a real‑time signal, not a guaranteed forecast, and consult the contract terms to see exactly how outcomes are defined and settled.
The contract resolves to the outcome that matches the official CPI figure referenced in the market terms; the exchange compares the published Bureau of Labor Statistics (or other specified) series for April to the outcome definitions in the contract and settles accordingly. Always check the market description for the exact series and rounding rules used for resolution.
Resolution occurs after the official April CPI release is published and the exchange applies its settlement rules. The precise timing and any waiting or confirmation period are specified in the contract details on the market page.
The market uses the CPI series explicitly named in its contract text; that could be headline (all items) or a core series and may specify seasonal adjustment. Consult the market page to confirm which series and adjustment method determine resolution.
Most contracts settle to the initial official release cited in the contract, but some markets specify settlement to a revised series or a later data file. Check the settlement rules in the market description to see whether subsequent BLS revisions affect payout.
Participants include retail traders, macro traders, and hedgers who react to incoming data such as weekly commodity prices, regional price surveys, jobs and wage indicators, and central bank communications. Price moves intensify as new high‑frequency indicators or analyst previews arrive, and liquidity conditions on this market will affect how sharply prices change ahead of the release.