| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the year‑over‑year 'core' Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be for September 2026; core CPI excludes food and energy and is a widely watched measure of underlying inflation. The result matters for monetary policy expectations, bond and equity markets, and real purchasing power.
Core CPI trends over the prior year reflect interactions among labor costs, services prices (especially shelter), and supply‑side conditions; those dynamics will shape the September 2026 reading. Policymakers, investors, and businesses use the series to assess whether inflationary pressures are broadening or easing and to calibrate interest‑rate and fiscal responses.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' expectations of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report for core CPI YoY in Sep 2026 and should be read as a snapshot of market consensus, not a guarantee. Use the market alongside economic releases and models to update your view as new information arrives.
The official U.S. CPI for September 2026 will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in its monthly CPI release, typically in the second or third week of the following month; this market is settled using the BLS published figure for September 2026 as specified in the market rules, so check KALSHI's settlement details and the BLS release calendar for exact timing.
Core year‑over‑year compares the CPI index for September 2026 to the CPI index for September 2025 after excluding food and energy components; whether the market uses seasonally adjusted or unadjusted series will be stated in the market's settlement rules, so confirm that before trading.
Watch the monthly CPI releases for the months between now and September 2026, producer price index (PPI), retail sales, employment reports (payrolls and average hourly earnings), import/export price indexes, and regional rental/shelter indicators — these help update near‑term inflation expectations that feed into the Sep 2026 outcome.
The BLS occasionally revises historical CPI components and seasonal adjustment factors; if revisions alter the year‑over‑year calculation for September 2026, the officially published (settlement) number is what matters for this market, so review the market's settlement rule about preliminary versus revised figures.
Treat each outcome as a range of possible reported values; weigh model forecasts, recent monthly CPI trajectory, potential near‑term shocks (e.g., sudden shelter index moves or supply disruptions), and market liquidity. Consider how sensitive your position is to small revisions or to a single surprise monthly print that could move the year‑over‑year comparison across a bucket boundary.