| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year for November 2026 will fall into. Core CPI is a widely watched gauge of underlying inflation and influences monetary policy, markets, and contracts linked to inflation expectations.
Core CPI excludes food and energy and is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, all items less food and energy). Policymakers, investors, and businesses track core CPI to assess persistent price pressures after transitory swings in volatile components. The reading for November 2026 will be interpreted in light of recent inflation trends, labor market conditions, and monetary and fiscal policy actions earlier in the year.
Market prices on this platform aggregate trader views about which outcome range is most likely; they update in real time as new information arrives. Use them as a snapshot of collective expectations and as a tool to compare how different risks or data releases shift market-implied views.
Settlement is based on the official BLS publication of the core CPI year-over-year for November 2026. The BLS typically releases monthly CPI data in the weeks after the reference month; the platform will use the BLS figure specified in its settlement rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined numerical range or bracket for the November 2026 core CPI year-over-year as listed on the market page. The outcome whose bracket contains the official BLS release will be the settling outcome.
Monitor the monthly CPI prints for the months immediately before November, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports, employment releases (payrolls, unemployment, wage measures), producer/import prices, retail sales, and housing data such as rent and homeowners' equivalent rent.
Fed policy affects aggregate demand and financial conditions with lags; significant rate moves or forward guidance can cool or stimulate spending and hiring, which in turn influence services and shelter inflation components that dominate core CPI.
Settlement follows the platform's stated rules tied to the official BLS publication used for this market. Some platforms use the first published BLS number for settlement while others reference a specific BLS table or vintage; check KALSHI's settlement documentation for the definitive policy on revisions.