| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which numeric range will contain the U.S. Consumer Price Index (core, year-over-year) for May 2026; it matters because core CPI is a widely watched gauge of underlying inflation trends that influences monetary policy and financial markets.
Core CPI excludes food and energy and therefore emphasizes services and goods inflation that can be more persistent. Recent years have featured large swings in shelter costs, labor-driven service inflation, and episodic supply shocks; those dynamics, plus Federal Reserve policy since 2022, set the backdrop for the May 2026 reading.
Market prices reflect participants’ aggregated expectations about the published BLS core CPI YoY number for May 2026; they update as incoming data and news change the perceived likelihood of each outcome bucket.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes the CPI for the prior month in a mid-month release; this market is tied to that official BLS release for May 2026, and settlement will follow the event rules which reference the BLS publication timetable.
Settlement is based on the BLS published CPI series that excludes food and energy (the core CPI) as reported in the official CPI press release and tables for May 2026; the market uses the year-over-year percentage change reported by the BLS.
The 16 outcomes are non-overlapping numeric buckets that together span a range of possible year-over-year core CPI values; when the BLS publishes the May 2026 figure, the outcome corresponding to the bucket that contains that published number is the settled winner.
Traders should consider the multi-month path of core CPI (especially shelter and services), recent wage and employment reports, commodity and import-price movements, and any fiscal or seasonal factors that produced base effects relative to May of the prior year.
Most markets settle to the official figure specified in their rules — typically the value published in the initial BLS release — so subsequent BLS revisions usually do not alter the settled outcome unless the market’s explicit settlement rules state otherwise; check the event rules for this market to confirm.