| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi event asks which discrete range will contain the U.S. Consumer Price Index (core) year‑over‑year figure for March 2026. Core CPI is closely watched because it strips volatile food and energy components and influences monetary policy, bond markets, and inflation expectations.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes monthly CPI data; the core year‑over‑year figure compares the index excluding food and energy to the same month a year earlier. March 2026 is a new monthly data point that market participants will use to update views about inflation momentum after recent economic releases and central bank communications.
Prediction market odds here reflect how participants are pricing different discrete outcome ranges for the published BLS core CPI YoY number; prices change as new data and news arrive and represent market-implied consensus rather than a certainty.
The BLS issues monthly CPI data on a published schedule (typically mid‑month); the exact release date for March 2026 will appear on the BLS calendar. Kalshi settles this market based on the official BLS published core CPI YoY for March 2026 according to Kalshi’s settlement rules and timing, which are available on the platform.
The 16 outcomes partition the possible values of the published core CPI YoY into mutually exclusive ranges. After the BLS release, the single range that contains the published core CPI YoY value is declared the winning outcome and the market settles accordingly.
Key lead indicators include monthly employment and wage reports, producer prices, import/export price indices, retail sales and consumer spending, and major commodity moves; unexpected one‑off events or volatile goods prices can also shift near‑term CPI prospects.
Momentum in core CPI and the path over recent months matters because year‑over‑year measures reflect both recent changes and the comparison to the same month a year earlier; sustained trends in services or goods prices tend to carry through into the YoY figure, while one‑off shocks may have more limited persistence.
Participants include institutional traders, macro hedgers, economists, and retail speculators. They trade to express views on inflation, hedge exposure to inflation risk, or extract information from market prices about how others are interpreting incoming data and news.