| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete range the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year will fall into for July 2026; core CPI excludes food and energy and is a widely watched measure of underlying inflation. The result matters because it influences monetary policy expectations, financial markets, and inflation-sensitive contracts.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes CPI data monthly, and the year‑over‑year core series compares the CPI excluding food and energy to the same month one year earlier. Over recent years, inflation dynamics have been shaped by supply disruptions, housing costs, labor market tightness, and monetary policy; the July 2026 reading should be interpreted in that broader multi‑year context. Market participants use this reading alongside other inflation indicators to update expectations about future inflation and policy.
Market prices in this event reflect participants' aggregation of information and expectations about which outcome bucket will contain the BLS‑reported core CPI YoY for July 2026. Interpret prices as a real‑time indicator of sentiment and shifting information rather than a single definitive forecast.
The BLS typically releases the CPI for the prior month in a monthly report published mid‑month; the market resolves to the BLS‑published core CPI (CPI‑U, all items less food and energy) year‑over‑year figure for July 2026 according to the platform's settlement rules. Check the BLS release calendar for the exact publication date and the market platform for settlement timing.
The 16 outcomes correspond to adjacent numeric buckets that together cover a range of plausible core CPI year‑over‑year values; the winning outcome is the specific bucket that contains the BLS‑reported July 2026 core CPI YoY value when the series is published. Outcome labels and bucket boundaries are defined on the market page.
Core CPI year‑over‑year is the percent change in the CPI index excluding food and energy from the same month one year earlier (the BLS series: CPI for All Urban Consumers, all items less food and energy, U.S. city average). That BLS series is the reference used to determine market settlement.
Releases that commonly influence expectations include prior monthly CPI reports (headline and core), PPI and import/export price indexes, employment reports (payrolls and average hourly earnings), retail sales, housing and shelter indicators, and high‑frequency data such as PMI and consumer sentiment; commodity price moves (especially energy) and significant supply shocks also matter.
Fed policy, rate decisions, and forward guidance influence borrowing costs, demand, and financial conditions with multi‑month lags, which can alter inflation trajectories and market expectations. Communications that change expectations for future policy or real rates can move this market by shifting participants' beliefs about demand and inflation persistence, though the July reading itself is driven by realized price data and the underlying economic factors summarized above.