| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.4% | 42% | 39¢ | 46¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 33% | 34¢ | 37¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 10% | 4¢ | 11¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 9% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $717 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $713 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 6% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $570 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $273 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.2% | 7% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $224 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $72 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $72 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $72 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $72 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $67 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $62 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $57 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $17 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year will be for February 2026. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is a widely watched gauge of underlying inflation that influences monetary policy, markets, and real incomes.
Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy prices to highlight persistent inflation trends that the Federal Reserve and investors focus on. Monthly movements in shelter, services, and goods components, as well as wages and import prices, feed into the year‑over‑year figure. Historical patterns, base effects from the prior year, and occasional statistical revisions all shape the reported number.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' views about the likely range of the reported core CPI YoY for February 2026 and update as new information arrives. They reflect the market’s collective expectation, not a guarantee of the final BLS release.
The market is resolved based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI release for February 2026 — specifically the core CPI (all items less food and energy) year‑over‑year series identified in the contract’s resolution rules. Check the market’s terms to confirm the exact series and seasonal adjustment used.
The outcome will be known when the BLS publishes the February 2026 CPI report; that publication typically occurs in the month after the reference period. The platform will mark the market resolved once the official figure is published and verified per its rules.
That depends on the contract language for this specific market. Some CPI markets use seasonally adjusted year‑over‑year changes and others use not‑seasonally‑adjusted; verify the resolution criteria on the platform before trading.
Key near‑term signals include the January 2026 CPI monthly report, employment and wage data (payrolls, average hourly earnings), PCE and producer price reports, ISM/PMI and retail sales, and major commodity or energy price moves that could influence price-setting.
Handling of revisions is governed by the market’s resolution rules: some contracts resolve on the initial BLS publication while others reference a later revised series. Confirm the platform’s policy in the contract terms to understand whether and how revisions affect settlement.