| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report for core CPI year-over-year for August 2026; core CPI excludes food and energy and is closely watched as an inflation trend indicator. It matters because the reading influences monetary policy expectations, financial markets, and real incomes.
Core CPI year-over-year is published monthly by the BLS and reflects the 12-month change in the consumer price index excluding volatile food and energy components. Recent years have seen inflation driven by a mix of housing costs, labor market tightness, and supply-chain dynamics, and those structural and cyclical forces will shape the August 2026 reading. Market participants will compare the published figure to prior months and to central bank guidance when assessing its implications.
Market odds here represent traders' aggregated expectations for the published August 2026 core CPI year-over-year value and update as new data and news arrive; treat them as a snapshot of market sentiment rather than a guarantee of the official number.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the monthly CPI report on its scheduled release day for August 2026; this market will typically close shortly before the official release or at the platform-specified cutoff—check the platform’s listings for exact close timing once the BLS schedule is posted.
This market uses the BLS headline CPI series excluding food and energy, measured as the 12-month percentage change in the published CPI index for the relevant month.
The market settles to the figure the BLS publishes for August 2026; if the BLS later revises that publication, settlement rules follow the platform’s policy on which official release is used, so check the market rules for treatment of post-publication revisions.
Items that change inflation expectations or near-term economic conditions—such as new labor market reports, major shifts in housing indicators, unexpected energy price moves, central bank communications, and supply-chain disruptions—tend to move traders’ assessments ahead of the BLS release.
The 16 outcomes partition possible published values into discrete buckets for trading; each outcome corresponds to a specific interval of the published core CPI year-over-year figure, and the market will settle to the bucket that contains the BLS-reported number for August 2026.