| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which bucket the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year for April 2026 will fall into; core CPI excludes food and energy and is a widely watched measure of underlying inflation. Outcomes matter because this reading influences financial markets, interest-rate expectations, and economic policy decisions.
Core CPI year-over-year compares the April 2026 CPI level to April 2025 and is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Historically, core inflation has been driven by housing costs, services, and wage growth; recent years’ volatility has made each monthly print important for reassessing inflation trends and central bank policy.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective assessment of where the April 2026 core CPI is likely to land and update as new data and news arrive. Treat market odds as real-time signals of market sentiment, not as fixed forecasts — they change with incoming information and risk preferences.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes the monthly CPI report in the weeks following the measurement month (April data is usually released in mid-May). This market will settle to the official BLS core CPI year-over-year figure for April 2026 as published in that release; check the contract rules for exact settlement timing.
Settlement is based on the BLS CPI for all urban consumers excluding food and energy (commonly referred to as core CPI) reported for April 2026; confirm the contract language for the exact series and seasonality adjustment.
Most markets settle to the number published in the initial BLS release for that month; subsequent revisions generally do not reopen settlement. Review the specific exchange contract terms to confirm whether they use the first published figure or a revised number.
Key near-term movers include the April employment report, monthly PCE and producer-price releases, FOMC meetings and minutes, major regional CPI components (like shelter indices), and sudden commodity or geopolitical developments that affect input costs.
The 16 outcomes represent contiguous ranges or buckets of year-over-year core CPI; consider the distribution of possible readings, the sensitivity of each bucket to recent trends (e.g., rent, wages), and your risk tolerance. Use position sizing and limits to manage exposure, and monitor incoming data that shifts the balance among adjacent buckets.