| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (month‑over‑month) will change for September 2026; core CPI excludes food and energy and is a key short‑term gauge of underlying inflation. The result matters because it influences financial markets, monetary policy expectations, and short‑term risk pricing.
Core monthly CPI measures price changes for goods and services excluding volatile food and energy components and is watched closely by investors and policymakers for signs of persistent inflationary pressure. Historically, month‑to‑month core CPI moves are driven by shelter and services components and can be noisy; policy decisions and market reactions tend to focus on multi‑month trends rather than any single print.
Market prices for this event reflect collective expectations about the BLS‑reported September core CPI month‑over‑month change and will update as new data or news arrives. They are a market consensus signal, not a deterministic forecast, and should be interpreted as the market’s aggregated view of likely outcomes.
The BLS typically releases the CPI for the previous month in the second or third week of the following month (generally a mid‑month release at the official BLS time). This market settles to the official BLS figure used by the exchange according to the market’s settlement rules; check the market page for the precise settlement timestamp and rule.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined numeric range of the reported month‑over‑month change as specified in the market description; on settlement the outcome whose range contains the BLS‑published value is the winning outcome.
Exchanges generally settle based on the official published figure specified in the market rules (often the initial BLS release). Later BLS revisions may be noted by researchers but typically do not retroactively change a market that has already settled; consult the exchange’s settlement policy if you need the definitive rule.
Data and events that provide fresh information on price pressures during September — for example, producer prices, retail sales, weekly jobless claims, wage and employment indicators, import/export price data, ISM surveys, and any major supply disruptions or policy announcements — are most likely to shift market expectations.
Participants include macro funds, professional traders, economists, hedgers, and retail traders; professionals often trade on models and high‑frequency data while others react to news and economic releases. Large or informed flows can move prices quickly as the market incorporates new information and updates the consensus about the upcoming BLS number.