| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report for the core Consumer Price Index (month‑over‑month) for October 2026. The October core monthly reading matters because it is a high-frequency signal used by markets and policymakers to assess underlying inflation momentum.
Core CPI excludes food and energy and is released by the BLS as part of the monthly CPI report, typically published in mid‑November for October data. Monthly core readings can move markets because they feed into forecasts for monetary policy, wage negotiations, and short‑term asset allocation; recent months' trends and any unusual seasonal or one‑off changes are useful context when evaluating October's number.
Prediction market prices express the collective market view about which outcome is most likely given available information; they are best read as a realtime signal of market expectations and how those expectations change with new data, rather than definitive forecasts.
The BLS normally publishes the CPI report for October in mid‑November; this market will be most active and will ultimately settle based on that official BLS release. Traders typically position ahead of the release and update positions rapidly when the BLS posts the headline and component details.
The eight outcomes partition the range of possible month‑over‑month core CPI readings into mutually exclusive buckets (from lower to higher). The outcome containing the exact BLS‑published value for October 2026 is the winning outcome; consult the market's rules for the exact bucket boundaries and rounding conventions.
Key prior releases include the October employment report (payrolls and wage measures), retail sales, producer prices, personal consumption (PCE) indicators, import/export price data, and regional price/survey signals — each can move short‑term expectations for the October core CPI m/m number.
Seasonal adjustment methodology influences the published month‑over‑month number and can produce differences from unadjusted changes; the market settles to the BLS published figure on release, and subsequent historical revisions by the BLS do not change which outcome won for the October 2026 release.
Participants include macro hedge funds, economists, active traders, and retail traders hedging inflation exposure; because participation and liquidity vary, large order flow or new incoming data can move market prices quickly as participants update expectations ahead of the official October 2026 CPI release.