| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which month-over-month change in core Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding food and energy) will be reported for November 2026; the reading matters because it influences financial markets and policymakers' views on inflation momentum.
Core CPI strips volatile food and energy components to highlight underlying inflation in goods and services and is closely watched by central banks and investors. In recent years shelter and service-sector inflation have been important drivers of core readings, and market participants use the monthly print to update expectations about future policy and growth.
Prediction market prices reflect participants' collective assessment of the likely reported value and move as traders incorporate new data and news; they are a real-time signal of expectations, not a definitive forecast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes the prior month's CPI in mid‑December; this market will settle based on the official number specified in the event rules, so check the event page for the exact release window and the market's close time.
This event tracks the BLS‑published core CPI change for November 2026 on a month‑over‑month basis, which is reported seasonally adjusted and excludes food and energy; confirm the event description for the precise series and units used for settlement.
Month‑over‑month measures the change from October to November and is more sensitive to short‑term shocks and seasonal patterns, while year‑over‑year compares November to the same month a year earlier and smooths monthly volatility to show longer‑run trends.
The BLS can revise published CPI series; how revisions affect settlement depends on the market's stated settlement rule — check the event’s settlement policy to see whether it uses the initially published figure or a later revised number.
Relevant events include large energy price moves, major supply disruptions or natural disasters affecting November prices, surprise labor market or wage reports, significant fiscal policy announcements, and central bank communications that change inflation expectations — any of these can shift market pricing ahead of the BLS release.