| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which bucket the U.S. CPI core month‑over‑month (May 2026) will fall into; core CPI excludes food and energy and is closely watched as a measure of underlying inflation. It matters because month‑to‑month core inflation influences monetary policy expectations, market pricing, and short‑term interest rate sensitivities.
Background: The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the official CPI report for May 2026 in mid‑June; this market resolves against that published core month‑over‑month number. Recent years have seen periods of elevated and variable core inflation driven by housing costs, services inflation, and supply‑side shocks, so market participants monitor monthly prints for signs of persistence or reversion. May 2026 sits within the macro context of central bank policy, labor market strength, and commodity/energy price developments that shape service and goods inflation dynamics.
Prediction market prices represent the collective expectation of traders about which outcome will occur and will move as new data or news arrive. Use prices as a real‑time signal of market consensus and changing risk perceptions, not as a fixed forecast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the May 2026 CPI report in mid‑June; this market resolves to the core month‑over‑month figure that appears in that official BLS release. Check the contract page for the exact resolution timestamp tied to the BLS release.
Settlement uses the BLS's official seasonally adjusted core CPI month‑over‑month number for the U.S. City Average (core = excluding food and energy) as published in the CPI news release for May 2026; the contract terms identify the precise series used for resolution.
Leading indicators include monthly housing/rental surveys, employment and wage reports, producer prices, retail sales, and high‑frequency price data; large geopolitical or supply shocks and major commodity moves can also shift expectations before the BLS release.
Month‑to‑month core CPI is noisy and influenced by seasonal adjustments and one‑off items, so weigh short‑term volatility accordingly and consider rolling averages or longer‑run trends to assess persistence rather than overreacting to a single monthly print.
Most contracts resolve to the figure published in the initial BLS CPI news release for May 2026; later revisions typically do not alter settlement unless the contract terms explicitly state otherwise — review the market's rulebook for the final authority on revisions and dispute procedures.