| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month‑over‑month for March 2026 will fall into; core CPI excludes food and energy and is closely watched as a signal of underlying inflation trends. Outcomes matter for interest‑rate expectations, financial markets, and short‑term inflation outlooks.
Core CPI is a monthly measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that strips out volatile food and energy prices to highlight underlying price pressures. Policymakers, investors, and businesses follow the monthly print because it helps inform monetary policy decisions and expectations about inflation persistence, while components such as shelter tend to be large and somewhat slow‑moving.
Prediction market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which outcome will be reported by the BLS; higher market prices indicate stronger market consensus that a particular outcome will occur. Prices update as new data, events, and analyst forecasts arrive, so they should be viewed as a live, collective signal rather than a fixed forecast.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the monthly CPI report on its official schedule, typically in the mid‑month following the reference month; this market resolves to the officially published, seasonally adjusted core CPI month‑over‑month figure for March 2026 per the platform's resolution rules.
It means the percentage change in the CPI from February 2026 to March 2026 after excluding food and energy and applying the BLS seasonal adjustment for the series used by the market.
Outcomes are defined by the contract’s specified bins or ranges; check the market page for the exact labels and resolution criteria, and review the exchange’s rulebook for tie, rounding, and dispute procedures prior to trading.
Relevant indicators include the monthly employment report (payrolls, wages), PPI, retail sales, housing rents and vacancy data, import/export prices, and recent commodity/energy price moves—these can shift near‑term inflation expectations and market pricing.
Central bank communications, fiscal announcements, geopolitical shocks, extreme weather, or sudden supply disruptions can alter demand and supply dynamics, prompting rapid adjustments in market expectations and the relative likelihood of different outcomes.