| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month‑over‑month reading will be recorded for June 2026; it matters because core CPI is a widely watched measure of underlying inflation that influences monetary policy and markets.
Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy components and is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the monthly CPI release that covers the prior month's price movements. Traders and analysts use these monthly readings, plus revisions and trends, to gauge persistent inflationary pressures and to anticipate Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Market prices on this contract reflect how traders collectively expect the June 2026 core CPI m/m outcome to fall into one of the offered outcome buckets; interpret prices as a real‑time summary of market expectations, and check the contract page for exact bucket definitions and settlement rules.
Resolution is based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' published core CPI month‑over‑month figure for June 2026 as specified in the contract's reference source; consult the Kalshi event page for the precise release used for settlement.
The market typically closes at or before the official BLS release time for that CPI report; the Kalshi event page lists the exact close time and any time‑zone information for this specific contract.
The eight outcomes partition possible readings into mutually exclusive buckets (e.g., ranges or specific values) that cover all settlement possibilities; read the contract detail on the event page to see the exact bucket boundaries and how a published figure maps to an outcome.
Settlement follows the contract's stated resolution rule—some contracts use the initially published figure while others reference revised values—so check the event page and Kalshi's resolution policy to see which edition of the BLS release governs this market.
Near‑term updates that can shift expectations include producer price reports, monthly employment and wage data, retail sales, major data on housing/rents, energy price moves, and any Fed commentary that changes interest‑rate expectations; these influence traders' views about the likely June core CPI m/m reading.