| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which discrete bin will contain the Bureau of Labor Statistics' core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month‑over‑month reading for July 2026. The core m/m CPI is a closely watched short‑term inflation signal that can influence interest‑rate expectations and financial markets.
The BLS publishes monthly CPI data that separate 'core' inflation (which excludes food and energy) from headline inflation; traders use monthly core prints to gauge underlying price pressures. Markets and policymakers have paid heightened attention to core monthly moves since the large inflation episode of the early 2020s, and this contract captures trader expectations for July 2026. This Kalshi contract currently offers eight mutually exclusive outcomes and has recorded trading activity on the platform.
Market prices and implied odds on this contract reflect collective trader views about the July 2026 core m/m print and update in real time; they are a measure of market sentiment, not a guarantee of the official BLS figure. Always cross‑reference the contract settlement rules and the official BLS release when interpreting outcomes.
The BLS issues the monthly CPI report for a given month in the following month (the July CPI is released in August) on the BLS CPI release schedule; this market settles to the official BLS core m/m figure as published in that release per the contract's settlement rules — check the contract page for the precise source and timestamp used for settlement.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive numeric range (a bin) that covers possible values of the BLS‑published core month‑over‑month change for July 2026; after the BLS release, the contract settles to the single outcome whose range contains the reported figure.
Yes — 'core' refers to the BLS core CPI concept used in the official release, which excludes direct food and energy price indices; consult the contract description to confirm whether seasonally adjusted or unadjusted series is used for settlement.
Shelter (rent and owner‑equivalent rent) typically has the largest influence on core m/m, followed by service categories sensitive to wage growth (healthcare, recreation, transportation services) and volatile goods components such as used vehicles; the net effect depends on July‑specific price changes across these groups.
Settlement follows the official published value specified in the contract's rules — typically the value in the official BLS report used at the time of settlement; if there are questions about revisions or disputes, refer to the market's published settlement policy or contact Kalshi support for how post‑publication revisions are handled.