| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0.2% | 45% | 44¢ | 45¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 28% | 28¢ | 29¢ | — | $336 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 1% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $292 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 21% | 17¢ | 25¢ | — | $75 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.2% | 7% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $61 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 7% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $61 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 7% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $56 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 3% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (month‑over‑month) for February 2026 will fall into; core CPI excludes food and energy and is a key gauge of underlying inflation that influences monetary policy and financial markets.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly CPI data that market participants and policymakers monitor for signs of persistent inflation or disinflation. Month‑over‑month core CPI readings are typically small and can be driven by services (especially shelter) and residual goods pressures; unexpected shocks or large seasonal adjustments can produce noticeable moves. For February 2026, traders will weigh recent inflation trends, labor market conditions, commodity price movements, and any supply disruptions.
Market prices on Kalshi reflect how traders allocate capital across the discrete outcome ranges and update as new information arrives; interpret them as a real‑time market signal to be used alongside economic models, official data, and fundamental analysis.
The BLS typically posts the prior month’s CPI around the middle of the following month; Kalshi markets generally close according to the platform’s posted schedule (often before the official release). Check the market page for the exact close time and the platform’s settlement policy after the BLS release.
It measures the change from January to February 2026 in the CPI index that excludes food and energy, expressed as a month‑to‑month change; the market maps that numeric change into one of the predefined outcome ranges.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a distinct numeric range (a bracket) of the month‑over‑month core CPI for February 2026; consult the market’s outcome labels or description to see the exact boundaries and settlement rules.
Intervening releases such as retail sales, the employment reports and related labor indicators, producer prices, import/export price data, regional Fed surveys, and big moves in commodity or energy markets can shift expectations for the February core CPI.
Use historical February patterns to gauge typical seasonality and volatility and to understand the usual contribution from shelter and services, but combine that context with current indicators and risk of one‑off shocks—history is informative but not determinative for a single month’s print.