| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) core month-over-month change will be for August 2026; core CPI excludes food and energy and is closely watched as a signal of underlying inflation trends. Traders use it to update expectations for monetary policy, real incomes, and financial markets.
Core monthly CPI is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the high-frequency indicators of inflation momentum that policymakers and markets monitor. Recent years have shown episodes of both transitory and persistent inflation pressures; month-to-month core moves are often driven by a handful of volatile components and by housing-related measures that have large weights.
Market odds on this instrument represent the collective expectation for the August 2026 month-over-month core CPI outcome as of the last trade, not a guarantee of the official BLS number. Because order flow and new economic information can change quickly, use market prices alongside economic releases and fundamentals when forming views.
The BLS typically releases monthly CPI data in the month following the reference month, usually around mid-month (commonly the second week of the following month), so the August 2026 core m/m figure is expected in mid-September 2026. Kalshi markets linked to that release generally close before the official BLS release time; check this market’s specific close time on the platform since it is listed as TBD.
It measures the percent change in the Consumer Price Index between July 2026 and August 2026 for the U.S., excluding the more-volatile food and energy components, as published by the BLS for August 2026.
Housing-related measures (owner’s equivalent rent and rents) are typically the largest drivers, followed by services such as medical care and transportation services, and then non-energy goods; unusually large moves in any of these subcomponents can sway the month-over-month core reading.
Key items include the August employment report (jobs, wages) released in early September, monthly PPI and import/export price data, retail sales and consumer spending indicators, and any significant supply shocks or policy announcements that affect services or goods prices; major Fed speeches or minutes can also shift rate expectations and therefore market interpretation of inflation data.
Low trading volume can mean prices are more sensitive to individual trades and may not fully reflect a broad consensus. Treat prices as informative signals but combine them with fundamental data and recent economic releases; be mindful of limited liquidity and wider bid-ask effects when interpreting or executing trades on this eight-outcome market.