| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the U.S. CPI core (excluding food and energy) will change month‑over‑month in April 2026; core CPI readings are closely watched as a measure of underlying inflation and influence interest‑rate expectations and financial markets.
Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy components to highlight underlying price trends driven by services and durable goods. Since the pandemic period, inflation dynamics have been shaped by supply‑chain disruptions, labor market conditions, housing/shelter costs, and central‑bank policy shifts, all of which remain relevant context for April 2026.
Prediction‑market prices aggregate traders' views about the likely reported m/m reading; treat prices as a real‑time summary of market beliefs that can change quickly with new data or news, and consider liquidity when interpreting them.
The market resolves against the official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release for the core CPI month‑over‑month for April 2026; settlement uses the BLS reported core CPI (all items less food and energy) m/m figure per the contract’s resolution rules.
The eight outcomes partition the range of possible April month‑over‑month core CPI readings into non‑overlapping intervals; each outcome pays out if the BLS reported m/m change for April 2026 falls within that interval, as specified on the contract page.
Lower traded volume typically means thinner liquidity and wider bid‑ask spreads, so prices can be more volatile and less informative—use caution and consider order execution risks before trading or treating prices as definitive forecasts.
April readings can be affected by seasonal demand shifts and the timing of rent resets, and have in past years shown both acceleration and deceleration; useful context includes the recent monthly trend, shelter components’ lagged behavior, and similar spring‑time patterns in prior years.
Key movers include monthly employment reports, producer‑price and retail‑sales prints, major commodity or supply‑disruption headlines, unexpected weather or geopolitical events, and any central‑bank communications that change inflation expectations.