| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 will be reported; core CPI (which excludes food and energy) is a key gauge of underlying inflation and influences interest rates, wages, and financial markets.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the monthly CPI; core CPI typically shows less month-to-month volatility than headline CPI and is closely watched by policymakers. The economic backdrop in 2026 — including labor market dynamics, housing costs, and supply-chain conditions — will shape the May reading; currently the market on KALSHI shows no recorded trading volume, which can change as the release approaches.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about which discrete outcome will occur; interpret them as the market's current consensus relative to available data and news, not as a guarantee of the published number.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the monthly CPI for the prior month on its pre-announced calendar, typically in the middle of the following month; the exact release date and time are set by the BLS. This Kalshi event's official close time is listed as TBD on the market page, so traders should monitor the exchange and the BLS calendar for precise timestamps.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the CPI for All Urban Consumers; 'core' CPI excludes food and energy and measures month-to-month change in the price of a defined basket of goods and services after seasonal adjustment. This event uses the published BLS core CPI figure for May 2026 as the reference outcome.
The market's 11 outcomes are discrete bins that correspond to ranges or specific categories of the reported core CPI for May 2026; higher-numbered outcomes map to higher reported inflation and lower-numbered outcomes to lower reported inflation. Consult the market's outcome labels on KALSHI for the exact ranges or definitions used.
A materially hotter-than-expected core CPI print tends to increase expectations for tighter monetary policy and can push short-term interest rates and yields higher, while a cooler print can ease such expectations. Policymakers and markets focus on whether changes reflect a persistent trend or a transitory shock rather than a single monthly move.
Remember that monthly CPI is seasonally adjusted and sometimes revised; check recent revision patterns and any notes from the BLS about methodology. If market volume remains low, prices can be more volatile and spreads wider, so size positions accordingly and use external indicators (e.g., PCE, wages, producer prices) to form a view rather than relying on a single data point.