| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which outcome will match the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' official report for core CPI in March 2026. Core CPI is a key indicator of underlying inflation and influences monetary policy, bond yields, and financial markets.
Since the inflation spike of 2021–2022, core CPI has been a primary focus for policymakers and markets because it strips out volatile food and energy prices and highlights underlying price pressures such as services and housing. The March 2026 reading will be assessed alongside recent trends in wages, rental inflation, and consumer demand to judge whether underlying inflation is cooling, stable, or re-accelerating. Market participants will compare this print to recent data and central bank communications to update expectations for policy and growth.
Market prices for each outcome represent traders' collective views about which reported value the BLS will publish; higher prices indicate stronger market support for that specific bucket. Because this event uses discrete outcomes, the winner will be the outcome whose range contains the official BLS figure, so check outcome labels carefully.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the March CPI report in April 2026, typically mid-month; this Kalshi market will settle against the official BLS release per the platform's settlement rules. Check the specific market page for exact settlement and close times because the market may close before the BLS release.
The metric used for settlement (month-over-month vs year-over-year, seasonally adjusted or not) is defined in the event's outcome labels and description on Kalshi. Consult the event page to confirm which series the eight outcomes map to before trading.
Each outcome represents a specific numeric bucket or range; after the BLS publishes the March 2026 core CPI value, the market will resolve to the outcome whose range contains that official number. Review the outcome labels on the event page to see the exact ranges.
Low liquidity means prices may reflect the views of very few participants and can be more volatile or less reliable as a consensus indicator; treat prices cautiously, supplement with other data and news, and watch for changes in volume or open interest.
Key updates include the monthly employment report, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) indicators, ISM and services PMIs, employment cost index or wage data, housing and rental reports, and Federal Reserve communications or meeting minutes; unexpected geopolitical developments or large commodity-price shocks can also shift expectations quickly.