| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.2% | 43% | 41¢ | 42¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 93% | 92¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 4% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 97% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 6% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $233 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks how the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026 will be reported; core CPI excludes food and energy and is a widely watched gauge of underlying inflation. Market expectations for this release matter because the print can influence monetary policy outlook, bond yields, and short-term market volatility.
Core CPI is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is used by analysts and policymakers to assess underlying inflation trends stripped of volatile food and energy components. Recent months’ trends, housing and service inflation, and labor market conditions typically shape expectations for the February reading. Kalshi’s discrete-outcome structure lets traders express views about which range the official number will fall into.
Prediction market prices reflect the aggregated view of participants about which outcome will be realized and update as new information arrives; treat prices as a dynamic signal rather than a fixed forecast. Because outcomes here are discrete bins, price movement indicates shifting market consensus about which range the published core CPI will land in.
Settlement is based on the official core CPI for February 2026 as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (the CPI measure that excludes food and energy), using the BLS’s published figure and methodology referenced by the market.
The market’s close time is listed on Kalshi (currently TBD); settlement occurs after the BLS publishes the February 2026 core CPI. Check the market page for the exact close time and settlement notes, since those are set by the exchange.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive bins or ranges that cover all possible reported values; the market description on Kalshi specifies the precise numerical cutoffs for each outcome, so consult that page to see how the published reading maps to an outcome.
Look at recent month-over-month and year-over-year core CPI trends, contributions from major components (shelter, medical, services), and any recent revisions to past CPI prints; also review how similar prints historically affected market prices and policy expectations.
Key moving events include monthly labor-market reports, Producer Price Index releases, retail sales, major commodity price moves, unexpected supply disruptions or weather impacts on prices, and public comments or policy moves from the Federal Reserve that alter inflation expectations.