| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026 will be reported; core CPI excludes food and energy and is a widely watched gauge of underlying inflation. It matters because the reading informs monetary policy decisions, market expectations, and short-term asset prices.
Core CPI is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and reflects price changes for a broad set of goods and services excluding volatile food and energy components. In the run-up to the April 2026 release, participants will weigh recent wage data, shelter/rent dynamics, and supply-chain developments against ongoing Fed guidance and macro shocks. Historical context — including the multi-year inflation cycle and past responses by the Federal Reserve — shapes how new monthly prints are interpreted.
Market prices on this event represent collective expectations about the BLS-reported core CPI for April 2026; they update as participants incorporate new data and commentary. To know exactly how the market will settle, check this event's settlement rules and the official BLS release used for determination.
The official figure is determined when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its CPI report for April 2026, typically in the month following the reference month; check this market's event page and the BLS release calendar for the exact publication and settlement timing.
Settlement is based on the core CPI series specified in the event's rules—commonly the CPI-U excluding food and energy and often the seasonally adjusted month-over-month or year-over-year figure; confirm the precise series and seasonal adjustment in the event's settlement details.
Volatility typically reflects new incoming data (jobs, wages, PPI, consumer surveys), Fed commentary, or major macro developments; traders should map such news to the primary drivers of core CPI (shelter, services, wages) and consider whether moves are driven by information or noise.
Market settlement follows the exchange's stated rules about which official figure is used; some markets use the initial published value while others may specify the final BLS number as of a particular time—consult this event's settlement policy to see how revisions are handled.
Key indicators include employment and wage reports, producer prices, shelter/rent trackers and rental listings, consumer spending and services activity, and Fed communications; these help anticipate whether core components are accelerating or decelerating ahead of the BLS release.