| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets participants trade on the year-over-year change in core consumer prices (Core CPI YoY) for May 2026 — a measure that excludes food and energy and is closely watched by markets and policymakers. The result matters because it informs expectations about inflation persistence and monetary policy decisions.
Core CPI isolates underlying consumer price pressures by excluding volatile food and energy components; it is reported monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In recent years, readings have been driven by trends in shelter, services, and labor costs, so the May 2026 print will be evaluated against that recent backdrop and any intervening economic developments.
Prediction market prices on this page reflect collective expectations about the official BLS release for May 2026; interpret price moves as shifts in market-implied views of inflation rather than guarantees of future policy actions.
The official Core CPI YoY for May 2026 is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly CPI report; this market settles to that official BLS figure, so check the market page for the exact settlement time and any platform-specific rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined value or range shown on the market page; settlement is based on the official BLS Core CPI YoY release for May 2026, applying the platform’s stated rounding and tie-breaking rules — consult the contract details for precise definitions.
Monitor shelter (rent and owners’ equivalent rent), medical care services, transportation and other services, and durable goods components; these subcomponents commonly drive movements in core CPI because food and energy are excluded.
Key movers include monthly employment and wage reports, Fed announcements or minutes, housing and rental data, major supply disruptions or price shocks, and any sizeable fiscal developments that affect demand or costs.
Use recent monthly core CPI trends, component contributions, and volatility to form a baseline and understand momentum; official historical series and component breakdowns are available from the BLS and major data providers, and the market’s info panel often links to recent releases and past values.