| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks how the U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) will read for March 2026 — a key gauge of underlying inflation that excludes food and energy and that influences policymaking and financial markets.
Core CPI YoY is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares the index for March 2026 with the same month a year earlier. Traders watch core CPI because it strips volatile components and can signal sustained inflationary pressure or disinflation, interacting with labor market conditions, supply dynamics, and monetary policy expectations.
Market prices represent the aggregated expectations of participants and update as new data and news arrive; treat them as real‑time consensus indicators rather than guaranteed predictions.
Settlement is determined by the official Core CPI year‑over‑year figure published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release that covers March 2026; the market will pay the outcome that corresponds to that published number according to the contract terms.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the monthly Consumer Price Index, and the Core CPI YoY figure for March 2026 from that report is the official source for settlement.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; settlement will occur after the BLS releases the March 2026 CPI report and Kalshi applies the published Core CPI YoY reading per its settlement rules.
The 11 outcomes partition the range of possible year‑over‑year core CPI readings into mutually exclusive buckets or exact values; each contract corresponds to one bucket and pays out if the official March 2026 reading falls into that bucket—see the market page for the precise boundaries.
Relevant movers include weekly job and wage indicators, producer price data, regional CPI components, central bank speeches or policy moves, major supply disruptions or commodity shocks, and any revisions to seasonal adjustment practices—each can update expectations for the March core CPI reading.